Can Modi govt effectively deal with new Bangladesh?

For India, the loss of Hasina as a trusted ally presents a strategic challenge, especially in a region where China's influence is growing. The situation calls for a recalibration of India's diplomatic approach, prioritizing genuine engagement over communal narratives to maintain strong ties with Bangladesh in this new era

Bangladesh has undergone unprecedented changes. A new regime has taken over. None, including former Prime Minister Hasina, had anticipated the turmoil. How things went out of control can be judged by how the former prime minister of Bangladesh left the country. She is said to have been given only 45 minutes to leave the country. The army arranged her exit to India. The hurried exit of the former Bangladesh Prime Minister reflects on the collapse of her politics. It is a severe blow to the politics of secularism that has long been under threat by the fundamentalist forces in the Indian subcontinent.

Has she been unduly punished or a victim of her machinations? The details of the last few days of her rule confirm that she has been in the habit of not listening to the suggestions of her advisors. She was running a regime that had hardly any respect for different voices. Like other despots, she despised democratic ways of resolving issues and cultivated a servile press. There are allegations of gross human rights violations against her. Mysterious disappearances, illegal detentions, and misuse of institutional machinery for putting people in jails have been integral parts of her rule. Over the years of her rule, she developed a disconnect with the people, which resulted in her unanticipated overthrow.

The issue that triggered her fast decline was not great. The issue of quotas in jobs, which has brought students onto the streets, was on the brink of settlement following a Supreme Court judgment. Things were not unmanageable. Her autocratic way of functioning led to disaster. The Anti-Discrimination Committee, the committee protesters had formed, was demanding resignations of ministers responsible for the killing of protesters. Instead of opening a dialogue with the protesters, she chose to brand them as criminals and anti-nationals.

Is it not unfortunate that a politician whose politics was inspired by an intense hatred towards the autocracy of Pakistan? Her politics centers on the ideology of the 1971 War of Liberation which was based on the best traditions of freedom, democracy, and secularism. Has she been able to uphold this tradition? She failed in it. This can be seen in the violence across Bangladesh against her party, the Awami League. Leaders were executed, and party offices were burned soon after she fled the country. People’s anger was so high that everything associated with her was attacked. The statue of Bangladeshi Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was also demolished.

The reason for her unpopularity is not limited to her abandoning the democratic way of running the government. It has economic reasons as well. The country saw considerable economic growth during her rule. She opened up the economy during her first tenure from 1996-2001 and continued it in her next stint which began in 2009 and ended just recently. The country significantly improved its position on the Human Development Index. However, the economic growth based on liberalization and globalization of the economy could not bring the kind of well-being common people were expecting from her. Though she spent on social welfare programs, including pensions for vulnerable people, housing for the poor, and other programs, she was not able to control rising inequality, soaring prices, and growing unemployment. The fall of Sheikh Hasina is a huge setback for India. Her friendship with India has a solid background. Prime Minister Indira Gandhi had played an important role in the formation of Bangladesh. The Indian Army defeated occupying Pakistani forces. The legacy of the Bangladesh Liberation War led by her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, is glorious. She lived in India with her children for six years after the assassination of her father in August 1975. Her personal and ideological bonding with India have been important factors in guiding her relations with India. In her absence, India will face difficult times in dealing with Bangladesh. For India, the fall of Hasina means the loss of the most trusted ally in the region. India has been completely outmaneuvered by China in the region and hardly enjoys excellent relations with any of the neighboring countries except Bangladesh. It includes Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, and the Maldives.

In this situation, it is a natural question for Indians to ask what roles China and Pakistan have played in engineering a coup against Hasina. Jammat-e-Islami and other radical elements in Bangladesh have strong allegiance to Pakistan, and they have been trying to control the nation since its birth in 1971. People also suspect the hands of the USA in the overthrow of Hasina. However, we forget the overriding factor of unpopularity. Could an entire nation be manipulated to change the government? Had she been able to sustain her image as a democrat, no one would have succeeded in overthrowing her.

It is a fact that India has to have excellent relations with Bangladesh. With unfriendly neighbors all around, India cannot afford to lose its friendship with it. Are we serious about it? Opposition parties have expressed their full faith in the government policies. However, the government is hardly ready to involve them in framing its strategy. An all-party meeting was convened, but it was halfhearted. The Prime Minister chose to skip the meeting. The exercise turned out to be a formality only. The stories that are appearing in the media are also hardly assuring. Everyone knows that Indian media only expresses the government's viewpoint and has notoriously been planting stories that promote the narrative of the BJP and the RSS.

Bangladesh is witnessing a mass unrest led by students. Communal elements are indeed trying to take advantage of it. However, media reports in India of attacks on Hindus are exaggerated and biased. We must remember that we cannot make Bangladeshis friends by terming them anti-Hindu or anti-India. Modi’s diplomacy is failing because of its communal narrative. The BJP and the RSS should avoid communal propaganda if they want the Modi government to effectively deal with new Bangladesh.

(The author is a senior journalist. He has experience of working with leading newspapers and electronic media including Deccan Herald, Sunday Guardian, Navbharat Times and Dainik Bhaskar. He writes on politics, society, environment and economy)